IMF warns global recovery might not be sustained

By Agence France-Presse, Updated: 10/6/2010

Rich and emerging economies must dramatically change the way they trade with each other or risk throttling the global economic recovery, the International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday.

In its latest economic outlook, the IMF said growth would slow more than previously expected in 2011, as the United States, Europe and Japan continue to struggle and China remains overly dependent on exports.

The recovery is "neither strong nor balanced and runs the risk of not being sustained," warned Olivier Blanchard, the IMF's chief economist.

Painting a picture of a faltering developed world -- where business is still struggling to pick up where government crisis spending left off -- the IMF predicted global growth would be pared back to 4.2 percent next year.

That is less than the 4.8 percent growth expected this year and 0.2 point below the IMF's July forecast for 2011.

While restocking had helped short-term growth in the United States, Japan and some parts of Europe, the IMF said advanced economies were still reliant on dwindling government spending.

"For the past year or so, inventory accumulation and fiscal stimulus were driving the recovery. The first is coming to an end. The second is slowly being phased out," the IMF said in its twice-yearly World Economic Outlook.

The IMF slashed its US growth forecast for 2011, to 2.3 percent, lopping 0.6 points off its July forecasts.

The growth forecast was also trimmed for this year, down 0.7 points to 2.2 percent, with warnings of "a weak recovery in coming quarters."

The IMF recommended that some central banks, like the US Federal Reserve, continue their ultra-loose monetary policies, but warned the impact of such policies would now be limited.

"Not much more can be done, and one should not expect too much from further quantitative or credit easing."

Increased exports must take up the slack, it added.

"Many advanced economies, most notably the United States, which relied excessively on domestic demand, must now rely more on net exports."

Meanwhile the IMF said that rich countries, many of which are heavily in debt, would have to trim spending and balance their books in the medium term.

"Fiscal stimulus has to eventually give way to fiscal consolidation, and private demand must be strong enough to take the lead and sustain growth."

There was a particular warning for Europe, with "severe external financing constraints" forecast for debt-laden Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

The picture could not be more different for emerging markets like India and China, where growth continues, but is limited by an over-dependence on exports to Europe, Japan and the United States that must be addressed.

"Emerging market economies with large current account surpluses must accelerate rebalancing. This is not only in the world economy's interest, but also in their own."

Wading into sensitive political waters, the IMF said China must allow its currency to strengthen to boost domestic demand and reduce its reliance on exports.

"To the extent that a stronger Chinese currency eases this process, other surplus countries in the region could follow suit, which would facilitate the needed shift towards domestic sources of growth," the IMF said.

Emerging markets are expected to expand at a rate of 7.1 percent this year and 6.4 percent in 2011.

Advanced economies are expected to grow more slowly, at 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.2 percent next year.

The WEO report came ahead of Friday's opening of a two-day annual meeting of the IMF, where its 187 member nations are set to focus on a looming currency war and the dangers of protectionist trading policies.

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Holistic Spirituality: Part 21

Holistic Spirituality: Part 21

by Ken Boa

Purpose

Holistic spirituality distinguishes our primary calling to know and love God from our secondary calling to express this relationship in everything we do and with everyone we encounter. If the secondary is not related to the primary, we slip into the error of dichotomizing the “spiritual” and the “secular” when they should really be integrated. When this happens, our relationship with the Lord is disconnected from the everyday activities of our lives.

The opposite error occurs when secondary calling replaces primary calling. When this occurs, work becomes an end in itself by turning into our principal “vocation” (from the Latin word for “calling”). In this way, the visible and horizontal swallows up the invisible and vertical. Or to use Francis Schaeffer’s expression, “nature eats up grace.” When we keep our primary calling first and seek to express it in and through our secondary calling, we become more holistic in our thinking and practice.

Although you cannot fully know or express the fullness of God’s calling on your life, it is still wise to ask the Lord for a clearer vision of His unique purpose for your earthly existence. Prayerful development of a personal purpose statement can give you focus and passion, particularly when you review and rethink it from time to time.

In the film Chariots of Fire, there is a significant scene when Eric Liddell takes his sister Jenny for a walk in the hills of Scotland to explain his commitment to training for the 1924 Olympic Games in Paris. He tells her, “I’ve decided—I’m going back to China. The missionaries said I was accepted.” Jenny rejoices to hear this, since she fears her brother’s calling to be a missionary is being threatened by his interest in running.

However, Eric goes on to say, “But I’ve got a lot of running to do first. Jenny—Jenny, you’ve got to understand. I believe that God made me for a purpose—for China. But He also made me fast, and when I run, I feel His pleasure. To give it up would be to hold Him in contempt. You were right—it’s not just fun. To win is to honor Him.”

Liddell was a man of focus and passion because he pursued a growing sense of God’s purpose for his life. When I run, I feel His pleasure—what do you do that makes you feel God’s pleasure? Frederick Buechner put it this way in Wishful Thinking: A Theological ABC: “The place God calls you to is the place where your deep gladness and the world's deep hunger meet.” As you become a person of ure? Frederick Buechner put it this way in Wishful Thinking: A Theological ABC: “The place God calls you to is the place where your deep gladness and the world's deep hunger meet.” As you become a person of calling and purpose, you come to realize that God’s good pleasure is also your good pleasure. Seek satisfaction apart from Him, and you will never find it; seek to please Him first, and you discover that satisfaction is a byproduct of the pursuit of God.

A developing awareness of your divinely-ordained purpose should impinge on every facet of your life and spiritualize the whole of your existence. Your calling and purpose are expressed and reinforced in an intentional rule of life. To embrace a rule of living is to seek positive guidelines of behavior that will assist you in fulfilling God’s purposes. This is training, not legalism; it is discipline, not drudgery. A holistic rule of life assists you in integrating the various components of daily experience—from devotions to work—under the lordship of Christ. Rule is never an end in itself, but a means to the end of expressing your primary and secondary callings. Therefore it is prudent to revisit and revise the ways in which you order your time and resources.

My friend Gayle Jackson has been a great help to me in the area of discerning and expressing biblical purpose, and I have adapted his approach to formulating global and role purposes, goals, and objectives. I will illustrate a part of this process with my personal purpose statement and three global purposes that emerge from this statement:

My life purpose is to be a lover and servant of God and others.

• Global Purpose 1 (loving God completely): To know God and His character and grow into conformity with His Son in faith, hope, and love.
• Global Purpose 2 (loving self correctly): To see myself in the light of God’s character and grow in humility and obedience.
• Global Purpose 3 (loving others compassionately): To see others in the light of God’s character and grow in love and service.

Prayerfully reflect on your own global and role purposes. Then consider what specific goals and objectives would assist you in fulfilling these purposes for your life.

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US Is 'Practically Owned' by China: Analyst

US Is 'Practically Owned' by China: Analyst

By: Antonia Oprita

The US supremacy as the top world economy will end sooner than many people believe, so gold is a better investment than the dollar despite it hitting a new record, Tom Winnifrith, CEO at financial services firm Rivington Street Holdings, told CNBC.com Monday.

Gold [XAU=X  1309.25    4.00  (+0.31%)   ] hit a new record high Monday and silver [XAG=X  21.8    0.10  (+0.46%)   ] rose to another 30-year peak as investors were worried about the dollar weakening further after the Federal Reserve hinted at more quantitative easing last week.

The US trade deficit and debt continue to grow and the authorities are reluctant to address the problem, preferring to print money, Winnifrith said.

"America is practically owned by China," he said.

He reminded of the fact that in 1900, sterling was the world's reserve currency but by 1948, that was no longer the case as the British Empire collapsed.

"America is doing what Britain did," Winnifrith said. "America spends much more than it can afford and it's not addressing the issue."

In 1832, China and India were the world's two largest economies and by 2032, they will regain that status, he predicted.

"The 200 years when Britain and the US were the top two economies were an aberration and that will change," Winnifrith said.

"The decline of empires has happened much faster than folks think. I believe that gold will be a far better bet

in 20 years than the dollar," he added.

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Morality: America In Crisis

Morality: America In Crisis

 by Jean-Philippe Gibson

The agony of America’s pain permeates through the still of the air. The eyes of Americans reflect back the same nostalgic cold stare. We all ask ourselves the same question. How could our great nation which has amassed unparallel prestige, wealth, and power find itself in such an abysmal abyss? Maybe words aren’t adequate enough to describe our fall from being the world’s biggest creditor nation to our current standing as the biggest debtor nation in world history. Somewhere along the way “Life, Liberty, & the Pursuit of Happiness” got lost in the mythical land of Chimerica and replaced with the liberal progressive lie that you can have it all at no cost.

These days King George III is in Washington, D.C. levying taxes with the illusion of representation. The American people say nay on an issue and the U.S. Congress says yea. The American people say yea on an issue and the U.S. Congress says nay. It is almost as if the U.S. Congress has forgotten the part of the constitution that reads:

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a
more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility,
provide for the common defence, promote the general
Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and
our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the
United States of America.”

It is almost as if “We the People” don’t matter anymore. Our elected officials have forgotten that they are elected officials elected to represent and execute our wishes while in Washington, D.C.

We have foreclosed on our homes and mortgaged our children’s future to the Chinese. As I write, the U.S. National debt is $13 trillion and rising by the second. According to the Congressional Budget Office, there are 28 million Americans on food stamps.

We have immense problems. I would venture to say that the very infrastructure of our nation is under siege. We are spending billions fighting two wars simultaneously, facing an inflationary depression, cutting education costs, nobody has a job, and an insane messianic regime in Tehran is on the brink of developing nuclear weapons. We find ourselves at the epicenter of the perfect storm. We must hold on to the ideal, that hope based upon hope is within our reach. We must remember that there is indeed hope beyond despair.

Tonight I implore every American to pray. Pray that we find the inner resolve to overcome as we have as a people so many times in history before. Liberal progressives has sought to take God out of the public square, but try as they might, we are still one nation under God.

Just like Martin Luther King Jr., I have a dream today. I have a dream that my beloved Americans unite to defeat the dark forces of moral relativism, islamofascism, Cloward & Piven, and Madalyn Murray O'Hair.

“‎Silence in the face of evil is itself evil. God will not hold us guiltless. Not to speak is to speak. Not to act is to act.”
--Dietrich Bonhoeffer


Write to Jean-Philippe Gibson at jpg527@gmail.com